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I represent the travel industry, and 15 years into the
online world, we still have just over 50% of commodity products (air,
car and hotel) sold online. The balance is still sold through offline
(retail travel agents) and call centers.
So, in response to the "will the ENTIRE online business move" question, the answer is a resounding NO.
The move to mobile will be directly related to how well the various players integrate the user experience and how well they understand where the user is when they are accessing their information via a mobile device. In the travel industry, the early move to mobile was done very badly, simply transitioning websites to a smaller screen without regard to how the user would respond to so many navigation points on such a small screen.
There will always be times that picking up a phone or sitting in front of a professional will make sense and there will be times when the size of the screen will make detailed research much easier on a PC than on the small screen.
Consumers are multi-dimensional and multi-faceted. Your marketing and distribution strategy should be as well.
So, in response to the "will the ENTIRE online business move" question, the answer is a resounding NO.
The move to mobile will be directly related to how well the various players integrate the user experience and how well they understand where the user is when they are accessing their information via a mobile device. In the travel industry, the early move to mobile was done very badly, simply transitioning websites to a smaller screen without regard to how the user would respond to so many navigation points on such a small screen.
There will always be times that picking up a phone or sitting in front of a professional will make sense and there will be times when the size of the screen will make detailed research much easier on a PC than on the small screen.
Consumers are multi-dimensional and multi-faceted. Your marketing and distribution strategy should be as well.
Chicke Fitzgerald
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Answer Part 2 - Since the end of the 80's we have seen the
main frame computer, become a Desk Top, a luggable, a PC, an early
Tablet in 1992, A mini PC (like a netbook without the net but a
telephone port), a range of portable PCs, laptops, micro PCs and then
netbooks. Now at last we have tablets and blue tooth keyboards, mobile
phones that are computers and wireless integration of all devices in the
cloud ... at last Apple have brought out iPad and the whole iRange
AIMED AT SIMPLICITY AND EASE OF USE.... the future will be technologies
that facilitate the human robot and senses and capabilities and
capacities ... then where will we go with nano computing and biological
computing? The driver in the end of the 80's and 90's was motivated by
the ongoing gaming development and this will continue to drive the
advent of new technologies. The games the young play influence the games
their great grandchildren will play.
Marcus Batten
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Answer part 1. Yes but no. The devices will converge and
unify and go from physical to virtual.The mobile phone and the computer
will vanish and become apps. We will carry a small device that can be
styalised however we choose ... it could look like an old fashion
filofax, compendium or more like a purse to carry some personal effects
or it could be a compendium or it could insert itself in other devices.
.... or it could be in our DNA and the dream goes on. Human though and
aspiration becomes reality and yet we can never set the timing. In the
future we will take a call and the device will place the sound in our
inner ear as it references where it is relative to our body. If we need
to do computing, typing etc., we will project via our body circuits a
head up display on our retina and we will virtual avatar type, draw or
paint a response. The communicator of the future will be a personal
locator, monitor, transmitter and receiver and just hang off a belt or
be built into our DNA. We will have applications that support and
process all the 55,000 sensations that hit us everyday, order them and
suit them and set up based upon our chosen strategies the best outcomes
available.
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No. Screen size and the ability to interact will still be
important. Phones are too small to spend hours reading and manipulating
information. (Teenagers behavior not withstanding.)
What
the phone might evolve to is a sort of identity device so your
"computing" experience follows you. People keep their phone within 6'
of them about 95% of the time. That is even higher than keeping their
driver's license near them. So tie the phone as your ID and you walk to
your office. Punch in a unique code to prove it is you and the phone
communicates to your desktop PC. The desktop PC may download your
virtual profile/environment so that it looks the same even if you are in
a different location. Some information may go the cloud, but some may
be synchronized to your phone so you have it even when you aren't
physically connected.
User productivity will be
higher with the bigger screens, faster computers, keyboards, etc, but
you will still be able to access your information remotely when you need
"snippets" or a transaction that can't wait.
So
it won't be phones. Will the operating systems take over? That is a
more likely scenario. A lot of devices will move from Windows to one of
these operating systems.
Dan Elam
Chief Operating Officer,
RSC Solutions
https://www.gplus.com/Android/Discussion/Will-the-entire-online-business-industry-transfer-from-computers-to-the-mobile-phone
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